The Quarterly Theory Framework — A Complete Introduction

This is the foundation. Every concept I teach — Sequential SMT, tCISD, PSP, SMT Fill, all of it — stems from this. Quarterly Theory was originally founded by Trader Daye, and I was a student of his 2024 mentorship. Once you understand how to divide time into quarters and what each quarter is for, every other concept slots in around it. Without this, the rest doesn't work.

The core idea

Every piece of time can be divided into four. Every candle on every timeframe can be split into four quarters, and each quarter has a function — it's either accumulating, manipulating, distributing, continuing, or reversing. Our job as traders is to identify which of those is happening in the current quarter, and use that to anticipate what the next quarter is most likely to do.

The cycles are fractal. The same logic that governs the weekly candle governs the 90-minute cycle, the daily, the yearly. Same rules, different scale.

The cycles and their timeframes

Each cycle must be viewed on its correct timeframe. You can't view the weekly cycle on the 5-minute chart — it just doesn't work. Match the cycle to its timeframe.

• Quadrennial cycle — viewed on the 1 month timeframe. 4 years long, each year = 1 quarter. Q2 = US election year. So 2023 was Q1, 2024 was Q2, 2025 was Q3, 2026 is Q4.
• Yearly cycle — viewed on the 1 week timeframe. Jan–Mar = Q1, Apr–Jun = Q2, Jul–Sep = Q3, Oct–Dec = Q4.
• Quarterly cycle — viewed on the daily. Each yearly quarter (3 months) divided into four (~3.25 weeks per quarter). Honestly, I never use this one. Skip it.
• Monthly cycle — viewed on the 4-hour. Each week of the month = 1 quarter. First week = Q1, second week = Q2, etc. Watch out for distortion weeks (weeks that start in one month and end in the next — treat them like Q0 and start your count from the following full week).
• Weekly cycle — viewed on the 1 hour. Monday = Q1, Tuesday = Q2, Wednesday = Q3, Thursday = Q4. Friday has its own function (returning to the true week open) — covered in True Opens.
• Daily cycle — viewed on the 15-minute. Asia (6pm–midnight) = Q1, London (midnight–6am) = Q2, NY AM (6am–12pm) = Q3, NY PM (12pm–6pm) = Q4.
• 90-minute cycle — viewed on the 5-minute. Each daily quarter (6 hours) divided into four (90 minutes each). So Asia Q1 of the 90-min cycle = 6pm–7:30pm, etc.
• Micro cycle — viewed on the 1-minute. Each 90-minute quarter divided into four (22.5 minutes each).
• Nano cycle — viewed on the 15-second. Each micro quarter divided into four.

You can keep going down to the second, technically. The fractality of time is unlimited.

To mark the quarters automatically on your chart, you can use the free Trader Daye Quarterly Theory indicator (search "quarterly theory" on TradingView), or my QT Toolkit which marks them out with dividers and stacks every other QT concept (true opens, SSMT, PSP, tCISD signals) on top.

The AMDX framework

Every quarter does one of four things: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, or X (continuation or reversal).

Two main profiles you'll see repeat across cycles:

AMDX — Q1 accumulates (tight range), Q2 manipulates (takes liquidity), Q3 distributes (the real move), Q4 continues or reverses.

XAMD — Q1 continues the previous cycle's direction (breaks out of Q4's range), Q2 accumulates (tighter range), Q3 manipulates, Q4 distributes.

Which profile you get depends on what Q1 does. If Q1 stays inside the previous Q4's range, you're likely in AMDX. If Q1 breaks out of that range, you're likely in XAMD.

This isn't the only thing price can do — markets do whatever they want. But these two profiles cover the vast majority of clean cycles.

What each quarter is for

Accumulation (A) — tight range, building liquidity. Not tradeable. Sit out.

Manipulation (M) — takes the previous quarter's liquidity, then reverses. Tradeable if you can confirm the manipulation is over (that's what Sequential SMT and tCISD are for).

Distribution (D) — the real expansion. The bulk of the candle's body. Tradeable, this is where the money is.

Continuation / Reversal (X) — final quarter, either continues distribution or starts pulling back into the range. How to tell which: if Q3 or the start of Q4 already hit a higher-timeframe key level (a gap, a draw on liquidity), expect Q4 to reverse. If it hasn't hit anything significant yet, expect Q4 to continue toward that key level.

Why this matters — the trading workflow

This is how I trade every day:

1. Establish bias on the higher timeframe (the candle you're trying to capture — daily, weekly, whatever).
2. Identify which cycle and which quarter you're currently in.
3. Anticipate what the next quarter is supposed to do based on the AMDX profile.
4. Confirm with cracks in correlation (SSMT, PSP, SMT Fill) when manipulation completes.
5. Enter on a tCISD or your preferred entry model, trade the distribution.

That's the whole game. Everything else in the library is a layer on top of this framework.

Fractality — the trick most traders miss

Here's the bit that unlocks everything: when you're bullish on a higher-timeframe candle, the opposing manipulation move on a lower cycle is also tradeable. If you're bullish on the daily and you expect London (Q2 of the daily cycle) to manipulate lower before the move higher, you can drop down to London's 90-minute cycle and trade that short into the manipulation, then flip and trade the long once the manipulation completes.

That's the fractality at work. The higher timeframe gives you the destination. The lower timeframe gives you the entries — both with the bias and against it on retracements.

Key Takeaways

• Every cycle is divided into four quarters. Every quarter has a function: accumulation, manipulation, distribution, or continuation/reversal.
• The cycles are fractal — same logic on every scale, from yearly down to nano.
• Each cycle has a specific timeframe to view it on. Match them up or the framework breaks.
• AMDX and XAMD are the two main profiles. Which one you get depends on what Q1 does relative to the previous Q4's range.
• Manipulation and distribution are the tradeable quarters. Accumulation is sit-out; X is read the higher-timeframe key levels to decide.
• The workflow: bias → quarter ID → anticipate next quarter → confirm with cracking correlation → enter with a model.
• Lower cycles let you trade the manipulation moves against your higher-timeframe bias before the real move kicks off.