True Opens — The Levels That Actually Matter
Daily, weekly, monthly opens — how to use them as draw and as bias. The single concept that filters fake manipulation from real manipulation.
Source video · Quarterly Theory Bootcamp │ True Opens EP. 2
True opens tie the cycles and the quarters all together. They filter out the low-probability manipulation, the fake reversals, the fake retracements — everything you know a quarter can do, true opens filter out the lower-quality version of it. If you only learn one concept from the Quarterly Theory library after the framework itself, make it this one.
What is a true open?
The true open is the opening price of Q2 of every cycle. That's it. Every cycle has its own true open, and they all follow the same rule — wait for Q2, mark the open of the first candle of Q2, draw a line. Done.
The naming convention is T (true) + middle letter (cycle) + O (open) — so TWO is true week open, TDO is true day open, TSO is true session open, and so on.
You can mark them by hand, or use the QT Toolkit at oracleindicators.com which plots every true open across every cycle automatically.
Every cycle's true open
Quadrennial → True Quadrennial Open. Viewed on the monthly. The first monthly candle of each US election year (Q2 of the quadrennial cycle = election year). Mark the open of that candle.
Yearly → True Year Open (TYO). Viewed on the weekly. The first weekly candle of April (April–June = Q2 of the yearly cycle). Mark the open.
Quarterly → True Quarterly Open. No fixed day — second quarterly cycle within each yearly quarter. Less mechanical, less useful. I rarely use this one.
Monthly → True Month Open (TMO). Viewed on the 4-hour. The Sunday 18:00 candle of the second full week of the month. Why second full week? Because of distortion weeks — weeks that start in one month and end in the next. Those are treated as Q0 and ignored. So you wait for the first full week to pass (Q1), and then mark the Sunday 18:00 4-hour candle that opens the second full week (Q2). Distortion weeks only happen roughly every 13 weeks.
Weekly → True Week Open (TWO). Viewed on the hourly. Monday 18:00. But — and this trips people up — that's Tuesday's candle open, not Monday's. Every daily candle technically opens in the previous day's Asia session, so Monday's daily candle opens at Sunday 18:00, and Tuesday's daily candle opens at Monday 18:00. Tuesday is Q2 of the weekly cycle, so its open (Monday 18:00 on the hourly) is the true week open.
Daily → True Day Open (TDO). Viewed on the 15-minute. The 12:00 a.m. (midnight) candle. This is the classic midnight open that ICT teaches. Mark the open of that 15-minute candle.
90-minute → True Session Open (TSO). Viewed on the 5-minute. One per session:
- Asia TSO: 7:30 PM
- London TSO: 1:30 AM
- New York AM TSO: 7:30 AM
- New York PM TSO: 1:30 PM
These are the Q2 opens of each session (each session is 6 hours; Q2 starts 90 minutes in).
Micro → True Micro Session Open (TMSO). Viewed on the 1-minute. Q2 of each 90-minute cycle. Too many per day to list mechanically — just look at the 90-minute quarters and mark the Q2 open of each.
How to use a true open
The fundamental rule: bullish manipulation below a true open, bearish manipulation above a true open.
True opens act as a time-based premium and discount.
- Above a true open = time-based premium → look for shorts.
- Below a true open = time-based discount → look for longs.
You don't blindly short above one or buy below one — you use it as the filter. Establish bias first. If you're bullish on the cycle, you want to see manipulation occur below the true open before the move higher. If you're bearish, you want manipulation above the true open before the move lower.
The workflow
Step by step on any cycle:
- Wait for Q2 to open. Mark the true open.
- Wait for manipulation — price drops below the true open (bullish bias) or pushes above it (bearish bias).
- Ideally, the manipulation also takes the previous quarter's high/low for liquidity (most of the time it will, not always).
- Wait for price to push back through the true open with a clean closure. That confirms the manipulation is complete.
- Trade the distribution toward the higher-timeframe draw on liquidity.
What if there's no manipulation below the true open?
If you're bullish but price never drops below the true open — that's a sign of low-probability conditions. Most cycles will give you the manipulation below the open. The only time it won't is during super-expansive candles where price just rips one way without retesting (rare but it happens — usually on huge news days).
If you miss the manipulation move below the true open, you can still take longs above the true open later in the cycle — but only after the manipulation has already happened below. You're using the true open as a retest level on the way up. The rule is: manipulation must occur below first (for bullish) or above first (for bearish), then you can enter on either side.
How "fake manipulation" gets filtered
This is the part most traders miss. If a quarter "manipulates" — takes the previous quarter's liquidity, makes a swing — but never trades above (bearish) or below (bullish) the true open, that's not real manipulation. It's chop. It's building liquidity for the actual manipulation move to come, which will trade beyond the true open.
So when you see what looks like manipulation but the true open is nowhere near where price went, ignore it. Wait for price to actually break the true open in your direction before treating the move as the real manipulation.
On the charts — weekly cycle example
ES, 1-hour, weekly cycle. Q1 (Monday) opens, accumulates around the previous Friday's close. True week open (TWO) prints at Monday 18:00 (Tuesday's candle open on the hourly). Q2 (Tuesday) chops around the TWO — wicks above, wicks below, no clean direction yet. Coming into Q3 (Wednesday), bullish weekly bias from your higher-timeframe read — you're looking for the manipulation below the TWO. Price drops below TWO during Wednesday → SSMT forms across the triad → aggressive displacement back above the TWO → manipulation confirmed. Q4 (Thursday) distributes higher. Q0 (Friday) continues to the upside, breaking the previous day high.
Clean cycle, true open did all the work.
On the charts — 90-minute cycle example
NY AM session, 5-minute. True session open marked at 7:30 AM. Bullish bias coming in (London accumulated, you're expecting AM to give the move). Also, you check the true day open — it's above the true session open. That's a bullish stacked-opens setup (see Stacked True Opens for the full breakdown). Price drops below both opens during Q2/Q3 of the 90-minute cycle → SSMT on the lows → aggressive break back above both opens → clean longs.
Key Takeaways
- True open = the open of Q2 on every cycle. Every cycle has one. Same rule, different scale.
- Cycle mapping: quadrennial (monthly), yearly (weekly, first April candle), monthly (4-hour, second full week's Sunday 18:00), weekly (hourly, Monday 18:00 = Tuesday's open), daily (15m, midnight), 90-min (5m, 7:30 PM / 1:30 AM / 7:30 AM / 1:30 PM), micro (1m, Q2 of each 90-min cycle).
- Distortion weeks (weeks split across two months) are treated as Q0 — skip them and start counting from the next full week.
- Time-based premium/discount: above the true open = premium (look for shorts), below = discount (look for longs).
- Always establish bias first. The true open is the filter, not the signal.
- The workflow: mark the true open → wait for manipulation on the correct side → confirm with a clean closure back through → trade the distribution.
- "Manipulation" that doesn't break the true open isn't real manipulation — it's chop building liquidity for the real move.
- Once manipulation has happened on the correct side, you can take entries on either side of the true open as long as it's a retest in your direction.