SMT Fill
A gap forms on two correlated assets at the same time — one fills it, one doesn't. That cracking correlation is one of my favourite concepts, with multiple ways to use it.
Source video · SMT Fill - Quarterly Theory · Quarterly Theory Bootcamp EP. 6
SMT Fill is one of my personal favourite concepts, because there are many different ways to use it. It tells you when and why a fair value gap should hold — and when it shouldn't. Simple concept, extremely powerful when stacked with the right model.
The dedicated SMT-Fill indicator at oracleindicators.com marks every same-time gap across correlated assets and flags the variant that triggers, so you don't have to eyeball both charts every time.
What it is
For an SMT Fill, you must see a fair value gap form at the exact same time on at least two closely correlated assets. Once the gap has formed, you then need to see one asset trade back within its gap and another asset fail to trade back within its gap.
So if the asset on the left traded back into its gap and the asset on the right failed to — that's the cracking correlation. But that's not the only variant.
Three variants
Variant one (the most obvious one): one asset trades back within its gap, the other fails to.
Variant two: one asset trades below 50% of the gap and the other fails to trade below 50% of its gap. Both assets trade within their gaps, but one goes below equilibrium and the other stays above equilibrium.
Variant three: one asset fills the gap completely (and can even wick below it) and one asset fails to fill it completely. One must fill the whole gap; the other can be anywhere else inside the gap as long as it doesn't fully fill it.
All three are classed as an SMT Fill — just slightly different cracks in correlation within those fair value gaps. And all three are showing you the same thing: strength on one asset, weakness on the other.
Two ways to use it
There are two main frames for using SMT Fill, and they're worth learning separately because they each play a different role in a model.
1. SSMT followed by SMT Fill (the entry pattern)
This is using SMT Fill as a confirmation-and-entry pattern off a Sequential SMT, on the same timeframe.
The sequence:
- See a Sequential SMT form on whatever cycle you're trading.
- Wait for the first fair value gap that forms after the SSMT (on at least two assets).
- Look for an SMT Fill inside that first-presented gap.
- Enter the SMT Fill, stop on the SSMT high/low, target the higher-timeframe draw.
The first-presented-FVG rule: the first gap that prints after any SSMT is the highest-probability gap. Think about it logically — if the SSMT is the smart-money reversal, you want to see the very next PDA respected. If it isn't, the SSMT itself is probably going to fail. So enter on that first gap, look for the SMT Fill inside, and that's your confirmation that the SSMT is going to hold.
2. HTF SMT Fill → LTF entry (the bias pattern)
This is my personal favourite use of SMT Fill, and how I incorporate it into my model.
The sequence:
- Spot an SMT Fill on a higher timeframe (4-hour, daily, weekly).
- Drop down to the proper lower-timeframe cycle (4-hour → 15-minute, daily → 1-hour, etc.).
- Wait for a lower-timeframe SSMT inside the higher-timeframe gap.
- Confirm with a tCISD and enter.
This is realistically one of the highest-probability setups you'll ever see. You're stacking:
- Higher timeframe respecting the gap (the HTF SMT Fill).
- Lower timeframe cracking correlation (the LTF SSMT).
- Entry confirmation (the tCISD).
Three layers of confirmation, all aligned. That's why it works so well.
Even better, you don't strictly need the LTF SSMT for the HTF SMT Fill to hold. The fill alone can be enough. So you can take a super simple ICT entry off the LTF gap, an inversion, an order block — anything — and it'll be supported by the HTF SMT Fill.
When to enter
You don't need to enter at the very tick of the wick. As soon as the SMT Fill is visibly happening, you can either:
- Wait for that candle to close, then enter on the next candle's open.
- Drop to a lower timeframe to confirm price is turning, then enter inside the wick before the higher-timeframe candle closes.
For a stop, the invalidation point is below the gap (bullish setup) or above the gap (bearish setup). If you're tighter, use the SSMT high/low when there's one in play.
What if the gap closes through?
In variant three (one fully fills, one doesn't), the asset that does fill the gap will sometimes close below the gap entirely. You don't ideally want to see this, but if it's only one asset and the other is still showing strength, the setup is still valid. If two or more assets close through their gaps, treat the SMT Fill as failed and walk away.
On the charts
The SSMT-then-SMT-Fill workflow is everywhere on a 5-minute chart once you're looking for it. Sequential SMT forms, first gap prints right after, you can visually see one asset wick into the gap while the other doesn't — that's variant one playing out in real time.
The HTF-LTF version is where the real money is. A 15-minute gap forms during a daily-cycle SSMT setup, ES fills the gap completely while NQ doesn't even touch 50% — that's variant three on the 15-minute. Drop to the 1-minute, look for a micro-cycle SSMT inside that gap, confirm with a tCISD, enter. 3R+ trades come from this pattern repeatedly.
Key Takeaways
- SMT Fill needs a fair value gap forming at the same time on at least two correlated assets.
- The crack: one asset reacts to its gap, the other doesn't.
- Three variants — (1) one fills / one doesn't, (2) one below 50% / one above, (3) one fully fills / one doesn't.
- Two use cases: SSMT → SMT Fill (same-TF entry off the first-presented FVG) or HTF SMT Fill → LTF entry (bias frame, drop down for entry).
- The first FVG after any SSMT is the highest-probability gap. If that one fails, the SSMT itself is probably failing.
- You don't need the LTF SSMT for the HTF SMT Fill to hold — the fill alone can confirm the gap.
- Don't enter on the HTF candle itself; scale down to your execution timeframe for the entry.
- One asset closing through its gap is recoverable; two or more = setup failed.