Quarter Functions — AMDX & XAMD

The Five Phases

Any quarter can do one of five things: accumulate, manipulate, distribute, continue, or reverse. Your job is to look at the previous quarter and determine which of these the next quarter is most likely to deliver.

Q1 — The Stage Setter

• Accumulation (most common): Q1 consolidates, doesn’t break the previous Q4 high or low. Expect Q2 to manipulate.

• Manipulation: Q1 sweeps the previous cycle’s high/low immediately. Expect Q2 to distribute.

• Continuation: Q1 continues the Q4 move from the previous cycle. Expect Q2 to accumulate.

Q2 — The Manipulation Quarter

• Q2 is where the true open forms — the opening price of Q2 is your reference for manipulation.

• If Q1 accumulated, Q2 will manipulate above or below the Q1 range.

• If Q1 expanded (continuation), Q2 will likely accumulate — large ranges are not back-to-back.

• If Q1 manipulated, Q2 will distribute. Rare but powerful.

• Bearish: Q2 trades above the true open then reverses. Bullish: Q2 trades below the true open then reverses.

Q3 — The Distribution Quarter

• Q3 is the body of the higher time frame candle — the bulk of the directional move.

• If Q2 manipulated → Q3 distributes. Most common and most tradeable scenario.

• If Q2 accumulated → Q3 becomes the manipulation. Produces the classic midweek reversal on the weekly cycle.

• If Q2 distributed → Q3 accumulates. Rare — occurs when London has an outsized range and AM session chops.

Q4 — Continuation or Reversal

• Reversal: Q3 distributed to the target. Q4 pulls back into the range.

• Continuation: HTF target not yet hit. Q4 continues the Q3 move.

• Rule: if Q3 or start of Q4 hits an HTF key level, expect reversal. If not, expect continuation.

• Back-to-back opposing SSMTs = uncertain — apply narrative and HTF logic.

The Two Main Cycle Profiles

AMDX — Q1 accumulates inside the previous range. Q2 manipulates above/below the Q1 range and true open. Q3 distributes in the direction of the manipulation. Q4 continues to the HTF target or reverses. The classic candle: open near range extreme, wick, body through the middle, close near the other extreme.

XAMD — Q1 continues from the previous cycle’s Q4, breaking outside the prior range. Q2 accumulates — choppy, no clear break. Q3 manipulates, putting in the high or low. Q4 distributes in the direction of the Q3 manipulation. This profile creates the classic midweek reversal on the weekly cycle.

The If-Then

• Once you see the manipulation quarter confirmed by a sequential SMT — stop looking for anything else. The distribution follows. Trust the if-then.

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