One Shot One Kill (OSOK)
Ever wonder how to catch the exact high or low of a cycle? This is the model. A two-stage sequential SMT — turtle soup paired with failure swing, in the right order.
The Concept
OSOK is a two-stage sequential SMT model built to mark the precise high or low of any cycle. It works off the relationship between a higher time frame SSMT and the immediate cycle directly below it. Get the pairing right and you’ve caught the extreme.
The Rule
-
If the higher time frame SSMT is a turtle soup (price runs the level clean on the souping asset), you must then see a failure swing on the immediate lower cycle’s SSMT.
-
If the higher time frame SSMT is a failure swing, you must then see a turtle soup on the immediate lower cycle’s SSMT.
-
The order matters. Turtle soup → failure swing, or failure swing → turtle soup.
-
Soup → soup or failure → failure can still work, but it is significantly lower probability. Wait for the clean pairing.
Cycle Pairings
| Catch the High/Low Of | Stage 1 (Higher) | Stage 2 (Immediate Lower) |
|---|---|---|
| The month | Monthly cycle | Weekly cycle |
| The week | Weekly cycle | Daily cycle |
| The day | Daily cycle | 90-min cycle |
| The session | 90-min cycle | Micro cycle |
Worked example — the week: on the weekly cycle, NQ runs Monday’s high (turtle soup) while YM puts in a failure swing. Drop to the daily cycle (the immediate lower) and the pairing flips: NQ now prints the failure swing, YM is the turtle soup. That flip is the signal you’ve caught the weekly extreme.
Entry & Risk
Once both stages confirm, enter with any technique — tCISD is mine. Mark the tCISD candle, enter at the retest. Stop on the sequential SMT invalidation. Target a liquidity pool or a set RR.
Turtle soup then failure swing, or failure swing then turtle soup. Get the order right and you’ve marked the exact high or low of the cycle. Miss the order and it’s just noise.
I trade this exact setup live every morning in the Premium Membership — charts up, called in real time. 3-day free trial.